BAYESIAN-APPROACH TO THE TREATMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IN SEISMIC DATA

In this paper, we present a method to formalize the uncertainty in the recording process of the intensity of seismic events, and we demonstrate the ease of handling of such an approach, calculating the distribution of a random variable related to the number of events with fixed intensity which occur in a given time period. Under the hypothesis of stationarity, we verify how adopting this new approach means changing from a simple Poisson process to a compound one. Bayesian estimates of the parameters are calculated starting from two different levels of knowledge.