Remote sensing and bio-geochemical modeling of forest carbon storage in Spain

This study simulates annual net primary production (NPP) of forests over peninsular Spain during the years 2005-2012. The modeling strategy consists of a linked production eciency model based on the Monteith approach and the bio-geochemical model Biome-BGC. Recently produced databases and data layers over the study area including meteorological daily series, ecophysiological parameters, and maps containing information about forest type, rooting depth, and growing stock volume (GSV), were employed. The models, which simulate forest processes assuming equilibrium conditions, were previously optimized for the study area. The production eciency model was used to estimate daily gross primary production (GPP), while Biome-BGC was used to simulate growth (RG) and maintenance (RM) respirations. To account for actual forest conditions, GPP, RG, and RM were corrected using the ratio of the remotely-sensed derived actual to potential GSV as an indicator of the actual state of forests. The obtained results were evaluated against current annual increment observations from the Third Spanish Forest Inventory. Coecients of determination ranged from 0.46 to 0.74 depending on the forest type. A simplified dataset was produced by applying regular increments in air temperature and reductions in precipitation to the original 2005-2012 daily series with the goal of covering the range of variation of the climate projections corresponding to the dierent climate change scenarios reported in the literature. The modified meteorological series were used to simulate new GPP, RG, and RM through Biome-BGC and corrected using GSV. Precipitation was confirmed as the main limiting factor in the study area. In the regions where precipitation was already a limiting factor during 2005-2012, both the increment in air temperature and the reduction in precipitation contributed to a reduction of NPP. In the regions where precipitation was not a limiting factor during 2005-2012, the increment in air temperature led to an increment of NPP. This study is therefore relevant to characterize the growth of Spanish forests both in current and expected climate conditions.