Three models intercomparison for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast over Calabria

In the framework of the National Project "Sviluppo di distretti in- dustriali per le Osservazioni della Terra" (Development of Industrial Districts for EarthObservations)fundedbyMIUR(Ministerodell'Universit`a edellaRicerca Scientifica--ItalianMinistryoftheUniversityandScientificResearch)twoopera- tional mesoscale models were set-up for Calabria, the southernmost tip of the Italian peninsula. Models are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) and MM5 (MesoscaleModeling5)thatareruneverydayatCratiscrltoproduceweather forecast over Calabria (http://www.crati.it). This paper reports model inter- comparison for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast evaluated for a 20 month period from 1th October 2000 to 31th May 2002. In addition to RAMS and MM5 out- puts, QBOLAM rainfall fields are available for the period selected and included in the comparison. This model runs operationally at "Agenzia per la Protezione dell'Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici". Forecasts are verified comparing models out- puts with raingauge data recorded by the regional meteorological network, which has 75 raingauges. Large-scale forcing is the same for all models considered and dif- ferences are due to physical/numerical parameterizations and horizontal resolutions. QPFs show differences between models. Largest differences are for BIA compared to the other considered scores. Performances decrease with increasing forecast time for RAMS and MM5, whilst QBOLAM scores better for second day forecast.