Sviluppo e accrescimento del frumento tenero. Calibrazione, validazione e sensibilità del modello di Amir e Sinclair nelle condizioni climatiche italiane.

The mechanistic model developed by Amir and Sinclair for the simulation of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) growth and development was calibrated and validate against field data obrained from 15 wheat varieties cultivated for 25 years in 11 stations in order to adapt it to the Italian climate conditions. The results of validation show that the model produces quite reasonable estimates of the phenological stages are estimated with about one day of approximation, whereas grain yield is slightly understimated by the model (2%). The sensitivity analysis shows that the model outputs are modified by changes in enviromental parameters such as temperature, rainfall, solar radiation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. In particular, temperature increases reduce the length of the period between sowing an emergence, whereas rainfall reduction anticipate the anthesis. Grain and biomass yield are influenced by all simulated parameters; the highest variations, 1.4 and 4.2 t ha-1 respectively, being obtainde for an 80% decrease of rainfall.