Preserving cultural heritage by supporting landscape planning with quantitative predictions of soil consumption

Landscape preservation in Italy is a major issue in national cultural heritage conservation policies. Urban settlements growth is among the most threatening factors for the correct landscape preservation. Such phenomenon may result in corrupting the correct landscape-system functioning, particularly when the development occurs without precise planning prescriptions. Land-use/cover evolution dynamic is a subject widely and thoroughly investigated, especially concerning consumption of natural and other lands due to anthropogenic activities. This paper focuses on a region in southern Italy, where soil consumption is known to represent a urging matter of concern. However, although the negative impacts of soil consumption are well known, to our knowledge there are no case studies presenting a precise quantitative assessment of the intensity of such phenomenon for the region of interest. Furthermore, this study aims at forecasting the development of urban settlements through the application of the cellular automata model SLEUTH; the case study concerns the Municipality of Altamura (Apulia region, Italy). Results highlight how current landscape preservation instruments alone cannot ensure a reduction in soil consumption phenomenon and how urban areas expansion is incompatible with a correct landscape conservation in the study area.