Prediction of prevalence of chronic kidney disease in diabetic patients in countries of the European Union up to 2025

Background. Diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are a growing burden for health-care systems. The prevalence of diabetes has increased constantly during the last decade, although a slight flattening of end-stage renal disease as a result of diabetes has been observed recently in some European countries. In this study, we project the prevalence of CKD in patients with diabetes in European countries up to the year 2025. Methods. We analysed the population with diabetes and development of nephropathy in 12 European countries, which we computed from models published previously and on data from the annual reports of the European Renal Association (1998-2011). The prevalence of CKD stage 5 in patients with diabetes up to the year 2025 was projected by the Lee-Carter algorithm. Those for stage 3 and 4 were then estimated by applying the same ratios of CKD prevalences as estimated in the Austrian population with diabetic nephropathy. Results. The estimated prevalence of CKD in patients with diabetes is expected to increase in all 12 countries up to the year 2025. For CKD stage 3, we estimate for Austria in 2025 a prevalence of 215 000 per million diabetic population (p.m.p.) (95% confidence interval 169 000, 275 000), for CKD4 18 600 p.m.p. (14 500, 23 700) and for CKD5 6900 p.m.p. (5400, 8900). The median prevalence in the considered countries is 132 900 p.m.p. (IQR: 118 500, 195 800), 11 500 (10 200, 16 900) and 4300 (3800, 6300) for CKD stages 3, 4 and 5, respectively. Altogether, these data predict in the years 2012-25 an annual increase of 3.2% in the prevalence of diabetic CKD stage 5. Conclusions. Due to the increase in prevalence of diabetes and CKD5, the costs of renal therapy are expected to rise. We believe that these data may help health-care policy makers to make informed decisions.