Publication Date:
2020
abstract:
Some ideas are presented about a geometric motivation of the apparent ca-pacity of generalized logistic equations to describe the outbreak of quite manyepidemics, possibly including that of the COVID-19 infection. This interpre-tation pivots on the complex, possibly fractal, structure of the locus describ-ing the "contagion event set", and on what can be learnt from the models oftrophic webs with "herd behaviour".Under the hypothesis that the total number of cases, as a function oftime, is fitted by a solution of the Generalized Richards Model, it is arguedthat the exponents appearing in that differential equation, usually deter-mined empirically, represent the geometric signature of the non-space filling,network-like locus on which contagious contacts take place.
Iris type:
01.01 Articolo in rivista
Keywords:
COVID-19; herd behaviour in population dynanics; logistic equation; Richards Model
List of contributors:
Materassi, Massimo
Published in: