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Some fractal thoughts about the COVID-19 infection outbreak

Academic Article
Publication Date:
2020
abstract:
Some ideas are presented about a geometric motivation of the apparent ca-pacity of generalized logistic equations to describe the outbreak of quite manyepidemics, possibly including that of the COVID-19 infection. This interpre-tation pivots on the complex, possibly fractal, structure of the locus describ-ing the "contagion event set", and on what can be learnt from the models oftrophic webs with "herd behaviour".Under the hypothesis that the total number of cases, as a function oftime, is fitted by a solution of the Generalized Richards Model, it is arguedthat the exponents appearing in that differential equation, usually deter-mined empirically, represent the geometric signature of the non-space filling,network-like locus on which contagious contacts take place.
Iris type:
01.01 Articolo in rivista
Keywords:
COVID-19; herd behaviour in population dynanics; logistic equation; Richards Model
List of contributors:
Materassi, Massimo
Authors of the University:
MATERASSI MASSIMO
Handle:
https://iris.cnr.it/handle/20.500.14243/409611
Published in:
CHAOS, SOLITONS AND FRACTALS
Journal
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URL

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590054420300130?via%3Dihub
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