ECONOMIC THEORY APPLIED TO SPACE DEBRIS SCENARIOS

The launch traffic to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is undergoing significant changes: instead of launching few, complex, large and expensive spacecraft, the trend is now towards the use of multitudes of small, less complex and lower-cost satellites. Large constellations, encompassing thousands of satellites in restricted regions of space, are emerging as important space assets. The intensifying commercial use of LEO and international debate regarding the stability of the space environment is a growing discussion among policy makers. Utilizing the SDM 5.0 evolutionary model developed by the Italian National Council of Research (CNR), the first step of this analysis is to estimate the growth of the space objects in LEO in the next decades. The analysis considers the space objects >10 cm, including active and defunct satellites, spent rockets bodies and fragments, along with varying future traffic, mitigation and remediation scenarios. Subsequently, the analysis focuses on the probability of collision with active satellites and on related mitigation and remediation scenarios. Based on this, the study employs a qualitative and preliminary approach to assess satellite operators' economic convenience of adopting measures that can mitigate the risk of collision by comparing their cost to the damage costs that may occur in case of collision. Finally, the study dedicate its concluding considerations to discuss if a free market setting can stimulate the formation of effective solutions to space debris challenges (namely, if it provides operators with the economic incentive to adopt or develop mitigation measures) or if public institutions' intervention is needed to finance mitigation strategies and, in particular, complex technologies development and adoption.