Simulating alternative forest management in a changing climate on a Pinus nigra subsp. laricio plantation in Southern Italy

Mediterranean pine plantations provide several ecosystem services but are particularly sensitive to climate change. Forest management practices might play a strategic role in the long-term adaptation of Mediterranean forests, however the joint effect of climate change and alternative management options together in the near and far future must be investigated. Here, we developed a management options portfolio and simulated the development of a Laricio pine (Pinus nigra subsp. laricio) stand in the Bonis watershed (southern Italy) from its establishment in 1958 up to 2095 using a state-of-the-science process-based forest model. The model was run under three climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration, and seven management options with different goals, including post-disturbance management, wood production and renaturalization purposes. We analyzed the effect of climate change on annual carbon fluxes (i.e., gross and net primary production) and stocks (i.e., basal area and potential carbon woody stocks), as well as the impact of different management options compared to no management. Results show that, while climate change (i.e. warming and enriched atmospheric CO2 concentration) seems to increase carbon fluxes and stocks in the first half of the century, both show a substantial decrease in the second half, along with higher temperatures (+3 to +5 °C) and lower precipitation (-20% to -22%). When compared to no management, alternative options had a moderate effect on carbon fluxes over the whole simulation (between -6% and +7%) but overall carbon stocks were maximized by thinning interventions and the shelterwood system (+54% to +55%). We demonstrate that the choice of management exerts greater effects on the features of Laricio pine plantations than climate change alone. Therefore, silvicultural strategies might enhance potential stocks and improve forest conditions, with cascading positive effects on the provision of ecosystem services in Mediterranean pine plantations.