Self-correcting models for seismic hazard assessment in comparison

The historical seismic data are suitably modelled by the self-correcting point processes whose conditional intensity functions give the instantaneous occurrence probability of at least one event. These models assume that the level of some physical quantity in a region is revealing of the proneness to generate earthquakes in the immediate future. Four versions of this self-correcting point process are defined through four different proposals for the quantity accumulated in the level of the process. Bayesian inference is performed.