The seismic sequence in Central Italy (2016-2017 ) II - Problem solving and decision making on geodynamic interpretation

The seismic sequence in Central Italy begun in August 2016 and still in progress in the Spring 2017 is a useful experiment in the natural environment, suited to check the effectiveness of AE (acoustic emission) monitoring in order to diagnose the state of the crust preceding an earthquake. It has been envisaged (Gregori, 2016) that seismic catastrophes can be operatively and effectively managed in terms of a 4 level approach. The focus of a previous paper ("paper I") was on the interpretation of AE records. The present paper ("paper II") deals with a geodynamic interpretation of the Italian peninsula. A critical analysis is considered of some different proposed geodynamic models, with no reference to any "generally agreed" paradigmatic scheme. An innovative perspective is thus found on the basis of a "top-down" approach. That is, only a straight application is considered of the fundamental laws of physics applied to a structural model of Italy, independent of the occurrence or not of seismic events. The target is to interpret phenomena in a self-consistent planetary framework. A subsequent paper ("paper III") is focused on the physical meaning and heuristic perspective of some apparently observed seismic (and volcanic) transmigration. Altogether, this approach shows how catastrophe mitigation and management can be practically improved by means of a "humble" and understating realistic approach to observations, also relying on some unprecedented monitoring techniques and by appealing to no preconceived "generally agreed" arbitrary paradigm.