The propagation and diurnal cycles of deep convection in northern tropical Africa

The propagation and diurnal cycle of organized convection in northern tropical Africa are examined using five years (1999-2003) of digital infrared imagery for May-August. Reduced-dimension techniques are used to document the properties of cold clouds - proxies for deep convection and precipitation. Large-scale environments are diagnosed from global analyses. Organized convection in Africa consists of coherent sequences or episodes which span an average distance of about 1000 km and last about 25 h. A substantial fraction of events exhibits systematic propagation at regional to continental scales while undergoing decay and regeneration. Episodes with 36 h duration and 1472 km span recur at a one-per-day interval. Most episodes have phase speed of 10-20 m s-1, which is faster than most African easterly waves. Convective episodes tend to initiate in the lee of high terrain, consistent with thermal forcing from elevated heat sources. Average diurnal frequency maxima result from the superposition of local diurnal maximum with the delayed-phase arrival of systems propagating from the east. Propagation occurs with moderate low- to mid-tropospheric shear, which varies with the African easterly jet migration and West African monsoon phases. Frequent deep convection occurs with local shear maxima near high terrain. For the peak monsoon period and for 10 °W-10 °E, where easterly waves and convective systems are frequent, 35% of cold cloud episodes occur east of the wave trough compared with about 24% to the west. Based on the coherent behaviour of organized, propagating convection, inferences may be made regarding the prediction of precipitation beyond one or two days.