A Method to Estimate the Incidence of Communicable Diseases Under Seasonal Fluctuations: a case study of Application to Cholera

This paper describes a method for estimating the seasonal variation of infection rate and the trajectories of the number of susceptible, infectious and removed individuals in a deterministicSIRS model. Given the infective trajectory, the other trajectories and the contact rate can be estimated via the model definition. The method is illustrated using cholera incidence data from three developing countries. Finally, an analysis of the sensitivity of parameter estimation for validating the obtained results using numerical analysis techniques is made.