VALUTAZIONE SPAZIO-TEMPORALE DEL RISCHIO DI DEGRADO QUALITATIVO DI UNA FALDA IDRICA

In some previous papers a probabilistic methodology was introduced to est imate a spatial index of risk ofgroundwater quality degradation, defined as the probability of overcoming an assigned threshold of concent rat ion ofa generic chemical sampled in the studied water system. In this job, a more reliable methodology is defin ed where spatial risk and its temporal trends are unified. The potential ha rmfu l event, in the study case, is the fe rtiliser and manure application, groundwater is the natural vulnerable system while the risk has been defin ed as the possibility that an assigned threshold ofnitra te conce ntra tion is overcome. Keywords: Gro undwater, Disjun ctive Kriging, Geostatistical Simulation, Risk.