The VQR, Italy's second national research assessment: Methodological failures and ranking distortions

The 2004-2010 VQR (Research Quality Evaluation), completed in July 2013, was Italy's second national research assessment exercise. The VQR performance evaluation followed a pattern also seen in other nations, as it was based on a selected subset of products. In this work, we identify the exercise's methodological weaknesses and measure the distortions that result from them in the university performance rankings. First, we create a scenario in which we assume the efficient selection of the products to be submitted by the universities and, from this, simulate a set of rankings applying the precise VQR rating criteria. Next, we compare these VQR rankings with those that would derive from the application of more-appropriate bibliometrics. Finally, we extend the comparison to university rankings based on the entire scientific production for the period, as indexed in the Web of Science.