Multidisciplinary approach to reconstruct flooding scenario along the subsiding coast of Lipari Island

Lipari is the largest and most populated island of the active Aeolian volcanic archipelago (Southern Tyrrhenian sea). In this study we show and discuss data on the relative sea level change inferred from historical and archaeological indicators located along the eastern coast of Lipari. In particular we focus on a ? 200x60 m of size submerged pier of Roman age dated at 2000±100 years BP, located at Marina Lunga, that correspond to the location of the modern harbor of Lipari. This structure is a valuable indicator of relative sea level change and vertical land movements, being presently located between 9 and 13 m below sea level. Global Positioning System (GPS) data collected in the last 18 years also suggest that land subsidence is still continuing in this region. From our investigations, a mean subsidence rate exceeding ? 6±0.3 mm/yr-1 is estimated, with a volcanotectonic contribution of ? 5±0.3 mm/yr-1 for the last 2 ka BP, as inferred from the comparison against the latest sea level prediction for the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea. Based on i) Digital Terrain and Marine Models realized through the merging of ultra-high resolution multibeam data and aerial photogrammetric surveys realized using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, ii) current rates of land subsidence estimated both from 18 years of GPS data, iii) the submerged roman pier and flooded buildings built during the last three centuries and iv) current and IPCC predicted rates of sea level rise, a flooding scenario is provided for the year 2100. The upper and lower limiting values of relative sea level rise are estimated at 1.68 m and 1.21 m, for the maximum and minimum climate change scenarios, respectively. Here we show the expected impact of marine flooding at Lipari for the next 85 years and discuss the hazard implications for the population living along the shore.