From anarchy to monopoly

Abstract--Mafia-like organizations are highly dynamic and organized criminal groups characterized by their extortive activ- ities that impact societies and economies in different modes and magnitudes. This renders the understanding of how these orga- nizations evolved an objective of both scientific and application- oriented interests. We propose an agent-based simulation model - the Extortion Racket System model - aimed at understanding the factors and processes explaining the successful settlement of the Sicilian Mafia in Southern Italy, and which may more generally account for the transition from an anarchical situation of uncoordinated extortion to a monopolistic social order. Our results show that in situations of anarchy, these organizations do not last long. This indicates that a monopolistic situation shall be preferred over anarchical ones. Competition is a necessary and sufficient condition for the emergence of a monopolistic situation. However, when competition is combined with protection, the resulting monopolistic regime presents features that make it even more preferable and sustainable for the targets.