Thermal bioclimate analysis for Europe and Italy

Summary. -- Thermal bioclimate indexes (as thermal comfort or heat stress indexes) are one of the main issues concerning tourism and health conditions especially for expected climate change. The Mediterranean area and countries such as Italy, Spain, France, Turkey and Greece, whose economies are markedly dependent on tourism, are vulnerable regions concerning climate change. In the present study thermal comfort and heat stress (here with the thermal index physiologically equivalent temperature--PET) are analysed in order to quantify the monthly conditions in this area. Additionally, based on climate change scenarios, the seasonal pattern of PET for the period 2070-2100 has been calculated. The results show that the expected conditions of thermal comfort especially for the Mediterranean and Italy will be higher, during summer, about two to three classes of thermal stress for the "business as usual" climate scenarios, and one class of thermal stress for winter. Adaptation and mitigation strategies are hence required for the protection of human health and tourism state and potentialities.