The predictability of meteo-oceanographic events

We have explored the predictability of storms in a small enclosed basin with a complicated surrounding orography. We have considered two exceptional storms in the far past and three mild events happened in recent years. A posteriori forecasts have been done up to 6 days before the events. The results have been compared versus measured data and the related analysis. Good predictability (10-15% error in surface wind speed and wave height) have been found up to day 4, mildly larger (< 30%) up to day 6 before the event. In no case was a storm missed. This suggests that the effective predictability in more open basins may extend to even larger ranges.