A Business-As-Usual Scenario Analysis for the Po Basin-North Adriatic Continuum

The aim of this paper was to analyse Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenarios for addressing the eutrophication issue of the Po Basin-North Adriatic coastal zone continuum. A multidisciplinary approach was developed combining Ecologic and Economic disciplines being a relevant step for shaping cost-effective strategies aiming to achieve the water quality targets as required by the Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000/60/EC and by the Italian D.lgs. 152 of the 2006. The BAU scenarios analysed suggest an increase of nutrient load (2.1-4.6% for nitrogen and 0.4-5% for phosphorus) ifthe current programme of measures will not be modified implying that Water Qualitative Objectives (WQOs) will not be achieved by the year 2015 (Art. 4 of WFD). The methodological approach described in this paper should be used as Decision Support System (DSS) aiming to support environmental planning process under both the WFD and the Italian D.lgs. 152 of the 2006.